A new chance can come for Mercedes and Ferrari
For the next block of races, real innovations can come for both teams.
Neither Ferrari nor Mercedes started this year as they would have liked. The huge disappointment could be more at Ferrari, based on what last year's car and the pre-season news promised. Mercedes is not in an easy situation either; from winning titles they fell back in 2022, but at the end of the season it seemed that there could be a step forward for this year. This did not happen, and the atmosphere of the team is similar to a year ago. The two famous teams not only have the bad luck that their car is worse than expected, so they have no chance of beating the leading Red Bull, but also Aston Martin has outperformed them. Lawrence Stroll's team not only caught up with Ferrari and Mercedes, but they are currently ahead of us in the constructors' championship, and it seems that they are also ahead in terms of development potential.
The current situation of the two former successful teams is quite similar. Moreover, their specific technical problems are also similar. One of the keys to Red Bull's success is the rear suspension. Which, for example, results in to good tire management. It's an element that the other two teams didn't work out or the it didn't work with the car the way it should, and the way it could help them to the advantage. It seems at the moment that this could be the key to more serious progress.
What to expect in the next few races? Developments. A wave of development can start from Imola. Several teams have hinted that the first major package will arrive by then. This is also the case with Mercedes, who also stated that "spectacular" changes could follow. This could be a reference to one of the first steps of the much-talked-about concept change, to the fact that a new, possibly Red Bull-type sidepods will already be visible on the Mercedes in Imola.
The situation is similar with Ferrari. Although the possibility of changing the concept has not been as much loud as at Mercedes, it is likely that something similar may follow here as well. There have been controversial reports from the team. It can be heard that even the construction of the sidepods may change, but at the same time, Fred Vasseur said that there will be no change in concept, only minor changes.
The month of May will open an interesting new chapter in F1. It will turn out, e.g. whether the three other big teams can caught up with Red Bull, whose punishment they received last year may come up in the field of the development. If this is not the case, then it is almost safe to say that the Austrian team will win both the individual and constructors' world championships in 2023.